Author Topic: Redfern Review Into Housing Supply Published  (Read 2538 times)

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Redfern Review Into Housing Supply Published
« on: November 16, 2016, 09:57:10 am »
Redfern Review:
Homeownership has fallen 7.5% overall and is down 22% for the young, since David Cameron came to power. Not helped by a 10% fall in the incomes of young people aged 28-30 relative to those over 40, since the financial crisis.

Redfern told the BBC Today programme:
"Housing supply is a 20 year problem that requires a 20 year solution"

"The detailed analytical work of the Review reveals the challenges that young people face in buying their first home and highlights the impact on them of long-term falls in relative incomes and ability to borrow.

"We must focus on supporting today's younger generation and creating a genuine long-term housing strategy independent of short-term party politics if we are to improve the position in a sustainable way for future generations."

The 21 biggest builders had about 387,000 units in their landbanks at their last year-end, of which 46.7% had implementable planning permission.  No surprise then that Redfern CEO of Taylor Wimpey echoes comments made in last week’s Dispatches Programme on Channel 4:
"It recommended that no general action should be taken to force builders to build-out land banks more quickly: "We are clear that this will put production at risk, not add to it."

It warns that even substantially increasing the supply of new homes will not directly improve the home ownership rate in the near term.

The Lyons review was published in October 2014, its main findings were:
At least 243,000 homes needed to be built each year to keep up with the number of new households being formed. It stated that some 130,000 homes with planning permission were either on hold or had been in the system for four years. Local and central government should have stronger powers to purchase land compulsorily so incentives for speculating on land were reduced.
It said:
"It is clear that we cannot rely on the volume house builders, important as they are."

Coincidentally, the publication of the Redfern Review coincided with the release of the DCLG latest figures for the number of new homes built in the financial year April 2015 to April 2016.
Quite why it has takes SEVEN months to publish these figures is a mystery.

189,650 net new homes were added comprising of
163,940 new build homes  The only statistic worth noting!
30,600 change of use from non-domestic to residential
4,760 conversions between houses into flats
780 "other gains (caravans and houseboats etc)"
against this offset 10,420 demolitions.

Meanwhile serial spinner Stewart Baseley, executive chairman of the Home Builders Federation (HBF) said
"These figures provide the best evidence to date as to how much house builders have ramped up housing supply. The Government's ambitious target to build one million homes over the course of this parliament is now within reach."

"Ramped up supply?" Basley's members are still building around 30,000 fewer new homes than they did in 2006/07 and 2007/08.  The only way the government's 1 million by 2020 target will be met is if they include even more types of accommodation in the figures. Already student accommodation, (lived in on a temporary basis) whilst not included in the overall new home figures, it is separately mentioned in the latest report.

Whilst trumpeting an 11% increase in "new housing" the reality is that new homes built by house builders is up 8,860, just 5.7% to 163,940 on the new homes built figure of 155,080 for the same period in 2014/15. 
In their figures for last accounting year, of the big three housebuilders only Persimmon built more than the 7% - up 7.8%, Taylor Wimpey (up 6.1%) and Barratt (up 5.3%) accounted for a combined increased output just 2,700 new homes!
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