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Author Topic: The inevitable Greek default will hurt us all.  (Read 9751 times)

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The Prophet

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The inevitable Greek default will hurt us all.
« on: June 25, 2011, 10:42:50 am »
The Greek debt to GDP ratio is now over 150% and it costs Greece 25% to raise money in the markets.
The Greek people seem to view paying tax as some sort of an unusual lifestyle choice.
The inevitable Greek default, whenever the Eurozone allow it to happen, will make what happened after the Lehman collapse look like a kid's tea party.

Bank losses would rocket; other states such as Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy would see their bonds tank and yields rise giving potential of further nation state defaults.

The banks would have to pay out on credit default swaps (an insurance against a Greek default). It is estimated these have been packaged up and sold on between banks as derivatives in much the same way as the "sub-prime" mortgages were that caused the last crisis. It is thought that these could have an exposure of £360bn far in excess of the actual Greek debt - even after the latest proposed ECB bailout.

The resultant panic could result in banks not lending to each other as happened three years ago and an Eurozone exit by a bankrupt Greece causing further turbulence.

Most commentators assume that French and German banks are the most vulnerable to a Greek default, however much of the Eurozone's exposure has been passed to Uk and US banks.
The total for the US is €193bn and the UK is €74bn. The main European banks' indirect exposure is thought to be only €35bn.


Philofacts

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Re: The inevitable Greek default will hurt us all.
« Reply #1 on: June 27, 2011, 09:43:19 am »
So the ECB is bailing out the bail out for Greece.  Greece has absolutley no hope of ever paying even the interest on the loans.
So a Greek default is going to happen anyway.

Why doesnt the ECB just let it happen and then bail out the banks afterwards. 
At least that way the banks will pay back the bailouts they get, Greece never will and all that money will be lost forever.
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