'"> ');

Author Topic: Forget Italy - France is the real Euro debt crisis  (Read 9097 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

The Prophet

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 364
  • Country: england
  • Financial & Economics commentator
Forget Italy - France is the real Euro debt crisis
« on: July 18, 2011, 09:12:45 am »
With all the concern about the bail outs in Greece Ireland and Portugal, last week Italy began spooking the markets and Spain may be the next to need ECB help.

However the real test will be France. Monetary union was to a large extent a French concept. They had the most to gain as the majority of their trade is within the European Union and fluctuating currency rates made life more difficult for French companies. Unlike the other countries with a debt crisis, France has a big successful economy, however France is losing its competitiveness within the Eurozone.

Their trade gap increased to €7.42bn in April (in contrast Britain's was €3.1bn) and France has no devaluation option to help its predicament. French wages are rising at a faster rate than German wages and its productivity is not as good. The rising trade deficit is evidence that France is struggling in the single currency in the same way as Greece - it is just taking longer to get to a crisis.

France is increasing new debts at faster rate than Italy. French debt will total 90% of GDP in 2011 and 95% in 2012.
As France runs ever bigger deficits the money will need to be re cycled through the banking system which will eventually lead to a financial crisis.

It is also becoming a real possibility that France could pull out of the Euro (Marine Le Pen pledging to bring back the Franc) and the bond markets may well react and price in this possibility sooner rather than later.