Author Topic: Why Leaving The EU Will Not Damage The UK Economy Or Trade  (Read 1089 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

The Prophet

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 364
  • Country: england
  • Financial & Economics commentator
Why Leaving The EU Will Not Damage The UK Economy Or Trade
« on: February 25, 2016, 09:00:59 am »
Why a Brexit will not hurt the UK economy and trade
Around 45% of Britian's exports are to the EU.
But Britain's trade deficit with the EU rose to an all time high of £89bn last year as we bought French wine, German cars, Spanish vegetables and Italian clothes and economically weaker EU countries - nearly all of them except Germany, bought less from us. 
Our exports to the EU FELL 8% to £134bn – a 6-year low and £31bn less than in 2011 when the eurozone debt crisis was at its worst!

So if (and it is still a big if) the EU throw its toys out of the pram following a Leave vote, the UK still runs a big trade deficit with the EU so it would hurt them more that it would hurt Britain.

A free-trade deal would almost certainly follow a Brexit as it would be in the interests of both parties to negotiate one.  In addition, erecting punitive trade barriers - under World Trade Organisation rules it is hard to apply a trade barrier where one didn't previously exist - the EU would lose more in export earnings than Britain.

It is worth noting that our exports to non-EU countries have increased 2% to £151bn.
Free of the shackles of Brussels holding back British exporters, Britain would be free to make its own trade deals world wide, for the benefit of British businesses and Britain not Brussels.

After we leave the EU ( and I sincerely hope we do!)  Britain will still be the EU's biggest export market and it is difficult to see a large German exporter like BMW allowing a Brexit to disrupt trade for long.
Finally, even without a formal trade deal, we could still export to the EU as the US, China, Japan and India all manage to do quite easily.