UK Referendum on leaving the EU will it actually change anything?
So as we know we have been promised a "stay" or "leave" an In or Out referendum before the end of 2017. But in all likelihood it will be sooner rather than later. The UK's six-month presidency of the EU is scheduled for the second half of 2017. If the referendum took place during this it would be at best embarrassing or more likely unworkable. So it could take place as early as next summer!
Current polls show IN at 38% (down 6% since June) and the OUT vote at 40% (up 6%)
It will cost Britain £9bn this year around 0.5% of GDP to be in the EU.
But, even if we do Vote Leave we won't be leaving!
The UK could end up with:
The Norway option:
IN The European Economic Area - A free trade area comprising of the EU Norway, Lichtenstein and Iceland. EU contributions would fall 17% and we would still be subject to EU regulations.
Switzerland option:
IN The European Free Trade Association. As the EEA but including Switzerland. UK EU Budget contribution falls by 60% and we would still need to negotiate agreements to access single markets in specific sectors.
The Turkey option:
A Customs Union. Outside the single market but retaining some benefits of membership mostly regarding trade in goods.
The impact on economic output would depend on which of the options, if any are followed.
The real rub for the British electorate is that the people will be given no choice in the matter.
We could all Vote Leave and find that we are still IN the EU, still paying vast sums to it and still subject to some of the most idiotic, ill-conceived regulations ever to see the light of day!
